Not a lot of interest in the FX market this morning according to dealers at the coalface of the interbank market but there are some very tight trailing stops now above 1.2895 in the EUR/USD (mainly from leveraged types) which will probably be targeted in the next few hours.
Personally I think its much more likely that the prolonged range trading continues around 1.3000 but if the bears can break and hold below 1.2750 then we might indeed see a trend renewal. The shorter term charts show decent resistance near 1.2935/50 so I would play the edges of this range for now.
German GDP was worse than expected and the EUR has dipped across the board. I don’t think this market is really focussed on EZ economic data so it will soon be forgotten. I’m sticking with the buy-dip bias in EUR crosses.
This move is all about the unwinding of long-term safe-haven plays into currencies like the CHF and the AUD so don’t be getting all ‘beared-up’ on the EUR/USD, it’s not about that pair. EUR/CHF has started to accelerate higher, EUR/AUD has been bullish for some time as has EUR/JPY, and even EUR/GBP looks modestly well-supported. [...]
Dealers report some weak trailing stops going off in the EUR/USD above 1.3000 and 1.3015. The EUR remains well supported on the crosses (EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, EUR/AUD etc) so if you want to buy the USD, you will find easier targets than EUR/USD.
The USD is struggling to make fresh gains against any of the other major currencies; we saw cable support at 1.5310 holding on Friday, USD/JPY is struggling also ahead of 102.00 and now USD/CHF is running into a wall of profit takers near .9600. I still think the USD goes higher but we might see [...]
Many many times over the years we used to stay back late in the dealing room in expectation of some post-budget volatility which never amounted to anything. I don’t expect tomorrow night to be any different and the market pretty much knows what’s coming anyway. Today, as expected, has been a session of quiet consolidation [...]
EUR/CHF has confirmed its base near 1.2200 and looks to be on another upswing. USD/JPY is certainly bullish but option barriers at 104.00 will prove very difficult to overcome. EUR/USD and cable are still moderately well-supported on dips, mainly driven by cross plays. AUD/USD is certainly an alternative for USD bulls but market longs have [...]
The much-anticipated article from Fed-watcher Hilsenrath has had little impact and the major pairings are trading close to their NY closing levels from Friday. USD/CHF and USD/JPY finished last week full of bullish momentum and I expect this to continue. The main target in USD/JPY is the upper-end of China’s big double-no-touch at 104.00 whilst [...]
Looks like Europe wants to buy the USD as well. NZD/USD broke below .8350 and triggered stops but the market has retraced and is trying to regain what looks like a pivotal level. USD/JPY and USD/CHF are trying to hold above 101.00 and .9500 respectively and EUR/USD bears are itching to test 1.3000.